Calm before the storm.....?
Submitted by Oram & Kaylor on May 15th, 2017Trying to accurately predict the movement of the financial markets is akin to predicting the weather. No one really knows, and we have to wait to see what actually happens.
The Markets
The Dow dipped marginally following December’s lower-than-expected U.S. retail sales report. But a Facebook jump helped the Nasdaq hit a record high, and the S&P 500 also rose. For the week, the Dow fell 0.39 percent to close at 19,885.73. The S&P lost .09 percent to finish at 2,274.64, and the NASDAQ climbed 0.96 percent to end the week at 5,574.12.
Returns Through 1/13/17 |
1 Week |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Year |
5 Year |
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) |
-0.39 |
0.68 |
26.46 |
9.64 |
12.68 |
NASDAQ Composite (PR) |
0.96 |
3.55 |
23.16 |
10.66 |
15.51 |
S&P 500 (TR) |
-0.09 |
1.67 |
22.99 |
10.03 |
14.46 |
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) |
0.20 |
0.37 |
2.08 |
2.85 |
2.23 |
MSCI EAFE (TR) |
0.82 |
2.61 |
10.34 |
-0.76 |
7.04 |
Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.
Straight Line — Just 25 percent of stock investors were bullish on the U.S. stock market on Dec. 31, 2015, after the S&P 500 had produced a 1.4 percent gain (total return) for 2015. The S&P 500 gained 12 percent during 2016 (source: AAII, BTN Research).
When? — Social Security trustees announced on June 22, 2016, that the trust fund backing the payment of Social Security benefits (OASI benefits) will be depleted in 2035. When the trustees released their report in 2003, the trust fund was projected to be depleted in 2042 (source: Social Security Trustees Reports, BTN Research).
From the March 2009 Low — Since dropping to a bear market low on March 9, 2009 (i.e., approximately 94 months ago), the S&P 500 stock index has gained 291 percent (total return) through the close of trading on Friday, Dec. 30, 2016, or an average gain of 1.5 percent per month (source: BTN Research).
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright January 2017. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI# 1684065.1