Calm before the storm.....?
Submitted by Oram & Kaylor on May 15th, 2017Trying to accurately predict the movement of the financial markets is akin to predicting the weather. No one really knows, and we have to wait to see what actually happens.
The Markets
Trading was choppy on Friday. The S&P 500 briefly reached a record high but fell by closing. All three of the major indexes fell for the day but logged strong weekly gains after the Federal Reserve indicated it may cut rates later this year. For the week, the Dow rose 2.41 percent to close at 26,719.13. The S&P gained 2.22 percent to finish at 2,950.46, and the NASDAQ climbed 3.01 percent to end the week at 8,031.71.
Returns Through 6/21/19 |
1 Week |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Year |
5 Year |
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) |
2.41 |
15.92 |
11.82 |
17.20 |
12.23 |
NASDAQ Composite (PR) |
3.01 |
21.05 |
4.13 |
18.36 |
12.95 |
S&P 500 (TR) |
2.22 |
18.87 |
9.48 |
14.49 |
10.75 |
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) |
0.44 |
5.66 |
7.75 |
2.50 |
2.97 |
MSCI EAFE (TR) |
2.22 |
13.28 |
0.21 |
7.78 |
2.01 |
Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.
Was Bad, Now Best — The worst performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2018 lost 67.1 percent. That same stock was up 107 percent YTD as of the close of trading on Friday, June 14, 2019, making it the best performing stock in the index through 24 weeks of 2019 (source: BTN Research).
Budget Review — During the first eight months of fiscal year 2019, i.e., through May 31, 2019, tax receipts were up 2.3 percent from the previous year to $2.27 trillion, while outlays were up 9.3 percent to $3.01 trillion (source: Treasury Department, BTN Research).
They Make Things — U.S. manufacturers employed 12.8 million workers as of Dec. 31, 2018, almost identical to the 12.9 million manufacturing jobs in the country as of Dec. 31, 1941. However, 264,000 new manufacturing jobs were added during 2018, the greatest annual increase since 1997 (source: Department of Labor, BTN Research).
WEEKLY FOCUS – Time to Review Your Insurance Policies?
You probably schedule regular physicals, dental checkups and auto inspections. Are you as vigilant in reviewing your insurance policies? There are good reasons to evaluate your homeowner’s, life and auto insurance coverage each year.
Homeowner’s insurance: Has your home increased in value? Your current policy might not provide full replacement value. Have you started a home business? It may not be covered. Have you added a pet, built a pool or bought a trampoline? Associated liabilities may not be covered. Have you added a security or water leak detection system? You may be entitled to a discount. Have you purchased valuables? You may need to add a rider. And be sure to check with your insurer if you add a roommate or occasionally rent your home out.
Life insurance: Has your family’s status changed because of a birth, marriage, divorce or job loss? You may need to add or reduce benefits or change your beneficiaries. Has your income grown? You might want to increase your coverage, so your loved ones can maintain their lifestyle if you die. Have you recently purchased a home? Make sure your coverage is sufficient to pay off a mortgage. Have you improved your health regime? You may be eligible for discounts. Have you lost your group life insurance because you changed jobs? You may need to increase your personal plan.
Auto insurance: Did you add a driver? Insurers want to know about everyone in your household who drives, although most won’t increase premiums if you only lend your vehicle to someone occasionally. Have you added a vehicle? If you don’t notify your company, they could refuse to cover a claim or renew your policy. Have you moved? Make sure your company has your current address, since many companies still mail their most important correspondence for legal reasons.
General: Aside from changes in your situation, reviewing all your policies may help you discover discounts, features or services for which you now qualify. If you have several policies with different companies, bundling a few with the same company may provide significant savings. On the other hand, if payments are automatically deducted from your bank account, you may not notice an unacceptable rate increase.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright June 2019. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI#2611905.1