Calm before the storm.....?
Submitted by Oram & Kaylor on May 15th, 2017Trying to accurately predict the movement of the financial markets is akin to predicting the weather. No one really knows, and we have to wait to see what actually happens.
The Markets
Both the dollar and U.S. stocks posted gains for the week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen indicated interest rates may rise in March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed out their sixth consecutive week of gains. For the week, the Dow rose 0.94 percent to close at 21,005.71. The S&P gained 0.71 percent to finish at 2,383.12, and the NASDAQ climbed 0.41 percent to end the week at 5,870.75.
Returns Through 3/03/17 |
1 Week |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Year |
5 Year |
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) |
0.94 |
6.81 |
27.24 |
11.87 |
12.93 |
NASDAQ Composite (PR) |
0.41 |
9.03 |
24.68 |
11.12 |
14.55 |
S&P 500 (TR) |
0.71 |
6.85 |
22.14 |
11.22 |
14.14 |
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) |
-0.85 |
0.20 |
0.93 |
2.35 |
2.09 |
MSCI EAFE (TR) |
0.45 |
4.68 |
12.14 |
0.11 |
5.30 |
Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.
In the Red in February — The last time February did not produce the largest monthly deficit in any fiscal year was 2002 (i.e., the 12-month period from Oct. 1, 2001, to Sept. 30, 2002) or 15 years ago (source: Treasury Department, BTN Research).
Borrow to Live — Aggregate household debt in the United States reached $12.58 trillion as of Dec. 31, 2016, just $100 billion below our all-time peak debt total of $12.68 trillion as of Sept. 30, 2008 (source: Federal Reserve, BTN Research).
U.S. Debt Holders — The Federal Reserve owned more Treasury securities at the end of 2016 ($2.46 trillion) than Japan ($1.09 trillion) and China ($1.06 trillion) combined (source: Treasury Department, BTN Research).
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright March 2017. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI# 1726928.1