Calm before the storm.....?
Submitted by Oram & Kaylor on May 15th, 2017Trying to accurately predict the movement of the financial markets is akin to predicting the weather. No one really knows, and we have to wait to see what actually happens.
The Markets
Solid corporate earnings, a stronger-than-expected April employment report and higher oil prices helped U.S. stocks rise Friday. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at record highs. For the week, the Dow rose 0.33 percent to close at 21,006.94. The S&P gained 0.66 percent to finish at 2,399.29, and the NASDAQ climbed 0.88 percent to end the week at 6,100.76.
Returns Through 5/5/17 |
1 Week |
YTD |
1 Year |
3 Year |
5 Year |
Dow Jones Industrials (TR) |
0.33 |
7.06 |
22.03 |
11.05 |
12.81 |
NASDAQ Composite (PR) |
0.88 |
13.33 |
29.33 |
13.81 |
15.59 |
S&P 500 (TR) |
0.66 |
7.86 |
19.49 |
10.70 |
14.29 |
Barclays US Agg Bond (TR) |
-0.23 |
1.36 |
0.31 |
2.51 |
2.17 |
MSCI EAFE (TR) |
1.82 |
11.98 |
16.72 |
1.39 |
7.61 |
Source: Morningstar.com. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P, excluding “1 Week” returns, are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.
After Tax Reform — Following the Oct. 22, 1986, signing of the Tax Reform Act, the U.S. economy grew by an average of 3.8 percent per year for three subsequent years, i.e., 1987-89 (source: Department of Commerce, BTN Research).
Inflation Returns — Inflation using the Consumer Price Index has exceeded 2 percent year-over-year for four consecutive months through March, the first time inflation has had such a streak since April 2012. The Federal Reserve’s annual inflation target is 2 percent (source: Department of Labor, BTN Research).
Last Two Decades — The U.S. bond market, including treasury, municipal, corporate, mortgage and asset-backed debt, has increased 239 percent in size in the last 20 years to $39.4 trillion as of Dec. 31, 2016, equal to growth of 6.3 percent per year (source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, BTN Research).
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia and Far East Index (MSCI EAFE Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-U.S. stock markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years. Written by Securities America, Copyright May 2017. All rights reserved. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. SAI# 1791307.1