Calm before the storm.....?
Submitted by Oram & Kaylor on May 15th, 2017Trying to accurately predict the movement of the financial markets is akin to predicting the weather. No one really knows, and we have to wait to see what actually happens.
While this saying is cliché, it is appropriate for this current market cycle. After all, it does not seem as though it were that many weeks ago when all the headlines and prognosticators would have you believe that another financial crisis was upon us. Those that reacted to this news are most likely regretting their maneuvers, as the markets have clawed their way back.
Does that mean, however, that we are in the clear as it relates to the economy and the general financial markets? It depends on your situation and what you are trying to accomplish. Investing and financial security are not 'one size fits all' propositions. You must customize your investment approach to your own set of unique goals and objectives. Just because it worked for 'Uncle Joe' does not mean it will work for you. Watch out for advice that originates from the water cooler, and as the old saying goes, 'consider the source.'
Since the markets may continue to be volatile for the remainder of 2016 this is a good time to review your portfolio and make any necessary adjustments, especially if you had a hard time stomaching the market fluctuations over the past few months. It is better to make adjustments during 'up ticks' in the markets than to make decisions based on emotion or a down market. Unfortunately, this is easier said than done.
Please be mindful of the long-term aspect of investing as it will serve you well. Remember, investing is a marathon, not a sprint.
“In 2009, Charlie Munger was asked how concerned he was that Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) shares — which made up most of his net worth — dropped more than 50%. He quickly interrupted the interviewer and responded:”
Zero. This is the third time that Warren [Buffett] and I have seen our holdings in Berkshire Hathaway go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it's in the nature of long-term shareholding that the normal vicissitudes in markets means that the long-term holder has the quoted value of his stocks go down by, say, 50%.
In fact, you can argue that if you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get compared to the people who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations. [1]
[1] The Agony of High Returns, Morgan Housel The Motley Fool, 4/4/2016